Monday, 21 May 2007

To believe or not to believe?



'Fields of science are commonly classified along two major lines: the natural sciences, which study natural phenomena (including biological life), and the social sciences, which study human behavior and societies. Both these fields are empirical sciences, which means the knowledge must be based on observable phenomena and capable of being tested for its validity by other researchers working under the same conditions'. (from wikipedia)

I made the last part bold on purpose. As a rule science in any form must be open to the rest of society to challenge 'its validity'. In fact this is what makes science, science. A constant natural progression through different hypothesis', improved by the tools that we have available to us at that time. This is, and always should be, actively encouraged. Lets not forget that at one time the general consensus was that the earth was flat.

It has been my observation however, that throughout history, certain events or 'scientific phenomena' have not been given the same, free for all, open to sensible suggestion. Without getting myself into trouble for naming them, I'm sure that you can think of a number of different events, both past and present, that have not been provided this basic requirement of scientific research.

It has also been my observation that on those very events, or phenomena, there has been a lot of controversy about the validity of their claims. To go further it would even be fair to say that the powers that be are trying to cover something up. A famous saying comes to mind at this point, "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely". This is the type of behaviour expected from 'totalitarian' states, but not of the free world. Ask yourself, 'Am I really Free"?

Here folks, you will find a wonderful report which I have nicked from the Times Online. This is, by far, one of the most realistic opinions that have been published by the media so far.

An experiment that hints we are wrong on climate change
When politicians and journalists declare that the science of global warming is settled, they show a regrettable ignorance about how science works. We were treated to another dose of it recently when the experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Summary for Policymakers that puts the political spin on an unfinished scientific dossier on climate change due for publication in a few months’ time. They declared that most of the rise in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to man-made greenhouse gases.
The small print explains “very likely” as meaning that the experts who made the judgment felt 90% sure about it. Older readers may recall a press conference at Harwell in 1958 when Sir John Cockcroft, Britain’s top nuclear physicist, said he was 90% certain that his lads had achieved controlled nuclear fusion. It turned out that he was wrong. More positively, a 10% uncertainty in any theory is a wide open breach for any latter day Galileo or Einstein to storm through with a better idea. That is how science really works.
Twenty years ago, climate research became politicised in favour of one particular hypothesis, which redefined the subject as the study of the effect of greenhouse gases. As a result, the rebellious spirits essential for innovative and trustworthy science are greeted with impediments to their research careers. And while the media usually find mavericks at least entertaining, in this case they often imagine that anyone who doubts the hypothesis of man-made global warming must be in the pay of the oil companies. As a result, some key discoveries in climate research go almost unreported.
Enthusiasm for the global-warming scare also ensures that heatwaves make headlines, while contrary symptoms, such as this winter’s billion-dollar loss of Californian crops to unusual frost, are relegated to the business pages. The early arrival of migrant birds in spring provides colourful evidence for a recent warming of the northern lands. But did anyone tell you that in east Antarctica the Adélie penguins and Cape petrels are turning up at their spring nesting sites around nine days later than they did 50 years ago? While sea-ice has diminished in the Arctic since 1978, it has grown by 8% in the Southern Ocean.

Background
‘Blame cosmic rays for warming up the planet’
No excuse for soft climate change laws
Jeremy Clarkson: Cornered by the green lynch mob

Related Internet Links
New Scientist on Climate Change

So one awkward question you can ask, when you’re forking out those extra taxes for climate change, is “Why is east Antarctica getting colder?” It makes no sense at all if carbon dioxide is driving global warming. While you’re at it, you might inquire whether Gordon Brown will give you a refund if it’s confirmed that global warming has stopped. The best measurements of global air temperatures come from American weather satellites, and they show wobbles but no overall change since 1999.
That levelling off is just what is expected by the chief rival hypothesis, which says that the sun drives climate changes more emphatically than greenhouse gases do. After becoming much more active during the 20th century, the sun now stands at a high but roughly level state of activity. Solar physicists warn of possible global cooling, should the sun revert to the lazier mood it was in during the Little Ice Age 300 years ago.
Climate history and related archeology give solid support to the solar hypothesis. The 20th-century episode, or Modern Warming, was just the latest in a long string of similar events produced by a hyperactive sun, of which the last was the Medieval Warming.
The Chinese population doubled then, while in Europe the Vikings and cathedral-builders prospered. Fascinating relics of earlier episodes come from the Swiss Alps, with the rediscovery in 2003 of a long-forgotten pass used intermittently whenever the world was warm.
What does the Intergovernmental Panel do with such emphatic evidence for an alternation of warm and cold periods, linked to solar activity and going on long before human industry was a possible factor? Less than nothing. The 2007 Summary for Policymakers boasts of cutting in half a very small contribution by the sun to climate change conceded in a 2001 report.
Disdain for the sun goes with a failure by the self-appointed greenhouse experts to keep up with inconvenient discoveries about how the solar variations control the climate. The sun’s brightness may change too little to account for the big swings in the climate. But more than 10 years have passed since Henrik Svensmark in Copenhagen first pointed out a much more powerful mechanism.
He saw from compilations of weather satellite data that cloudiness varies according to how many atomic particles are coming in from exploded stars. More cosmic rays, more clouds. The sun’s magnetic field bats away many of the cosmic rays, and its intensification during the 20th century meant fewer cosmic rays, fewer clouds, and a warmer world. On the other hand the Little Ice Age was chilly because the lazy sun let in more cosmic rays, leaving the world cloudier and gloomier.
The only trouble with Svensmark’s idea — apart from its being politically incorrect — was that meteorologists denied that cosmic rays could be involved in cloud formation. After long delays in scraping together the funds for an experiment, Svensmark and his small team at the Danish National Space Center hit the jackpot in the summer of 2005.
In a box of air in the basement, they were able to show that electrons set free by cosmic rays coming through the ceiling stitched together droplets of sulphuric acid and water. These are the building blocks for cloud condensation. But journal after journal declined to publish their report; the discovery finally appeared in the Proceedings of the Royal Society late last year.
Thanks to having written The Manic Sun, a book about Svensmark’s initial discovery published in 1997, I have been privileged to be on the inside track for reporting his struggles and successes since then. The outcome is a second book, The Chilling Stars, co-authored by the two of us and published next week by Icon books. We are not exaggerating, we believe, when we subtitle it “A new theory of climate change”.
Where does all that leave the impact of greenhouse gases? Their effects are likely to be a good deal less than advertised, but nobody can really say until the implications of the new theory of climate change are more fully worked out.
The reappraisal starts with Antarctica, where those contradictory temperature trends are directly predicted by Svensmark’s scenario, because the snow there is whiter than the cloud-tops. Meanwhile humility in face of Nature’s marvels seems more appropriate than arrogant assertions that we can forecast and even control a climate ruled by the sun and the stars.

2 comments:

angel-e said...

I'm sorry but I can not believe what you are saying. There is substantial evidentiary support for why greenhouse gases and humans have caused global warming.

Rick Foster said...

Hi angel-e. Hopefully, in our lifetime, global warming will be proved for what it is, a total scam. So at least then we can be sure our children will not be funding wars with tax paid under the guise of 'Green Tax'.

I would love for your eyes to be open to the bigger picture, but, as we are living in a country who's government holds no regard for its own citizens, I'm surprised you haven't woken up to this fact yet.

More and more leading academics are now coming into the fold due to lack of supporting evidence from the touter's of 'carbon off-setting'. If you go to three separate leading promoters of this clap-trap, and a) ask how they work out their figures, and b) what their findings are, they, I am certain, will conflict against each other because the truth is that the threat of global warming is BIG MONEY BUSINESS.